winter’s choices
Credit: iStock & Lishansky Photography
Editor’s Note: This article was originally published on January 13, 2024, and will be updated where noted in reverse chronological order as events occur.
March 12, 2024
GEORGIA PRIMARIES
It’s official. We now have presumptive nominees for both major political parties: Joe Biden for the Democrats and Donald Trump for the Republicans, thanks to Georgia voters.
Donald Trump beat the withdrawn Nikki Haley with 84.5% of the vote to 13.2%, picking up 56 delegates in the process. The delegate count now stands at 1,255 for Trump, 94 for Haley, nine for Ron DeSantis, and three for Vivek Ramaswamy.
Joe Biden won Georgia’s 108 delegates with 95.2% of the vote.
So, what did we learn from the Georgia results?
What we expected to happen happened.
Now, it’s on to the summer party conventions. Enjoy the ride!
March 5, 2024
SUPER TUESDAY PRIMARIES & CAUCUSES
The results from Super Tuesday were perfect for the two presidents of the United States. They essentially vanquished their remaining competitors for their party nominations this summer.
Donald Trump beat Nikki Haley in 13 of 14 states, with lone Vermont giving the former South Carolina governor a psychological win.
By state:
Alabama yielded 41 delegates to Trump, who had 83.2% of the vote, compared to Haley’s 13%, with 93% of the vote counted.
Arkansas had 27 delegates for Trump with 76.9% of the vote to 18.4%, with 99% of the vote counted.
California’s 169 delegates went to Trump with 78.6% of the vote to 17.9%, with 49% of the vote counted.
Colorado awarded 23 delegates to Trump and 11 delegates to Haley, with 82% of the vote, with Trump gaining 63.3% and Haley 33.5%.
Maine’s 20 delegates went to Trump, who received 72.5% of the vote to 25.7%, with 91% of the vote counted.
Massachusetts had 85% of the vote, giving Trump 40 delegates for winning 60% to 36.7%.
Minnesota was 99% counted when Trump took 27 delegates, and Haley was awarded 12 delegates for their 69.1% and 28.8% of the vote, respectively.
North Carolina gave Trump 53 delegates and Haley 7 delegates for their 73.9% of the vote to 23.3% with 99% of the vote counted.
In Oklahoma, Trump earned 81.8% of the vote, compared to Haley’s 15.9%, giving 37 delegates to Trump, with 98% of the vote counted.
Tennessee awarded Trump 51 delegates for 77.3% to 19.5% of the vote with 99% counted.
Texas’s 141 delegates went to Trump, who received 77.9% of the vote, compared to Haley’s 17.4%, with 99% of the vote counted.
Utah’s caucus awarded Trump 40 delegates for his 57% to 42% margin, with 83% of the vote counted.
Virginia had 33 delegates to add to Trump’s win, 63.1% to 34.8%, with 98% of the vote counted and six delegates for Haley.
Vermont gave its nine delegates to Haley for beating Trump 49.9% to 45.9%, with 99% of the vote counted.
The GOP contestants' overall delegate count thus far is 995 for Trump, 89 for Haley, nine for Ron DeSantis, and three for Vivek Ramaswamy.
Joe Biden won all primary states by sizeable margins without requiring a blow-by-blow accounting. Interestingly, Biden’s remaining competition, Congressman Dean Phillips, lost seven states to Marianne Williamson, who withdrew from the nomination race some time ago.
So, what did we learn from the Super Tuesday results?
The race for the nomination for both 45 and 46 is over. Donald Trump and Joe Biden will face off for 1600 Pennsylvania again in 2024.
Biden's contest win percentages were better than expected, while Trump showed weaknesses in some of his vote margins, where Haley also ran.
Trump’s many legal issues and extreme positions did not prevent him from beating the entire GOP nomination field, and Biden’s age did not impede his progress. Who knew?
March 4, 2024
NORTH DAKOTA GOP PRIMARY
Nikki Haley lost the North Dakota GOP presidential primary to Donald Trump, who took all 29 delegates from the state with 84.6% to 14.1% of the vote.
So, what did we learn from the primary results of North Dakota?
Super Tuesday will be all-telling. Stay tuned!
March 3, 2024
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA GOP PRIMARY
Nikki Haley got an expected win in the nation’s capital, winning all 19 of DC’s delegates with 62.8% of the vote to the former president’s 33.3%.
So, what did we learn from the District of Columbia primary results?
Nikki Haley got a feel-good win from DC, but not much has changed to divert Donald Trump from the 2024 GOP presidential nomination.
Super Tuesday, March 5th, might change this fact, but polling indicates that Haley is not expecting many, if any, wins.
March 2, 2024
MISSOURI GOP CAUCUSES AND IDAHO PRIMARY
Donald Trump continues his political juggernaut over his former U.S. Ambassador with significant wins in Missouri and Idaho. Trump won the Missouri GOP Caucuses 190 delegates to Haley’s zero. In the Idaho primary, Trump beat Haley 84.9% to 13.2% and collected all 32 delegates at stake in the state. Both contests are reporting 100% of the votes counted.
So, what did we learn from the Missouri and Idaho results?
Donald Trump is steamrolling the former Ambassador and is well on his way to securing the GOP nomination for another term as president of the United States.
February 27, 2024
MICHIGAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES
The nominees of both major parties are coming into sharp focus. Joe Biden will win the Democratic nomination for another term as president, winning his primary with a strong 81.1% of the vote. The uncommitted campaign by pro-Palestinian/Gaza permanent ceasefire advocates drew a 13.3% vote, which had the national media and pundit class all in red flag mode. Marianne Williamson dropped out of the race earlier, and Dean Philips, who most likely will soon, took 5.7% of the vote combined. Biden won all 109 delegates at stake. Donald Trump trounced Nikki Haley again with 68.2% of the vote to the former U.N. ambassador’s 26.6% of the Michigan GOP primary vote. These numbers come from approximately 95% of the votes having been counted. In the delegate count, Trump leads Haley 122 to 24. Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy, who have withdrawn from the race, have nine and three delegates, respectively.
So, what did we learn from the Michigan primary results?
Donald Trump will undoubtedly be the GOP nominee for a second presidential term.
Joe Biden will undoubtedly be the Democratic nominee for a second presidential term.
But Trump and Biden have clear warning flags to be wary of. Donald Trump continues to lose a quarter to a third of his vote to someone else, which is alarming when you are effectively running as an incumbent. The question is: will this trend materialize in the general election? For his part, Biden has an irritated Arab community to contend with if he wants to win Michigan. The question is: will the Arab community vote for Trump, who said before that he wants to ban Muslims from coming into America, or hurt Biden by abstaining from voting in November?
Super Tuesday, coming up on March 5th, will formally seal the fate of Nikki Haley and Dean Philips.
February 24, 2024
SOUTH CAROLINA GOP PRIMARY
Donald Trump continued his march toward the GOP presidential nomination with an easy win over former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley. With 99 percent of the expected vote counted, the former president had 59.8% of the vote to Haley’s 39.5%. Trump won 47 of the 50 delegates at stake, but Haley collected three. After the votes were counted, Haley said she would stay in the race because people needed an alternative to Trump, declaring the race was “not a Soviet-style election with only one candidate. Trump, for his part, said he would focus on beating Joe Biden. RNC chair, Ronna Romney McDaniel, is indeed resigning, opening the way for an election denier and a Trump daughter-in-law to be party co-chairs.
So, what did we learn from the South Carolina GOP results?
Donald Trump looks to be the GOP’s 2024 presidential nominee.
Haley has enough money to stay in the contest until at least Super Tuesdays on March 5th, when one-third of all the primary delegates are at stake in 15 states.
Although Trump has bested Haley in four states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina), Haley still collects a bigger-than-expected chunk of the GOP vote in each contest. That fact should rattle GOP bigwigs because it means many Republican folks do not want Trump to be their standard-bearer in 2024. The Biden campaign should be happy with the trend.
February 14, 2024 (Happy Valentine’s Day)
NEW YORK SPECIAL ELECTION …
Former Democrat Congressman Tom Suozzi won the closely-watched District 3 race to replace expelled GOP Congressman George Santos, defeating Nassau County legislator Mazi Pilip 53.9% to 46.1% with 93% of difficulty counted. The day was drama-filled by Donald Trump’s MAGA contingent yet again when the Senate passed a security bill for Ukraine, Israel, and ld Taiwan only to learn that Speaker Johnson plans to ignore the upper chamber’s effort to protect and assist critical American allies in their battles against Russia, Iran, and China. Candidate Trump announced that he wants his daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, to co-chair the Republican National Committee once RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel is formally pushed out after the South Carolina primary on February 24th. Topping off the day, Homeland Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas was impeached by the U.S. House on a vote of 214-213.
So, what did we learn from the New York special election results?
The GOP's governing majority in the United States House of Representatives is narrowing to 219 to 213, with 218 needed to maintain control of the lower chamber. Heading for the GOP, already tricky and woefully poor, became even more challenging.
NY03 is an interesting bellwether on immigration, ethics, and the economy as campaign issues. Abortion and ageism were not as crucial to the suburban electorate, but this was suburbia, not the inner cities voting yet again for the Democrat candidate. Three more House seats are still vacant and facing special elections
Trump nepotism did not work for the 45th president the first time around the 1600 block and is fraught with problems at the RNC, where Lara Trump has pledged to use as many dollars as possible to fund Trump - both his political as well as legal needs.
February 8, 2024
THE NEVADA & VIRGIN ISLAND GOP CAUCUSES …
Donald Trump won the Nevada GOP Caucus with 99.1% of the vote, although the former president was the only major party candidate competing for the 26 delegates at stake. Nikki Haley charged that the Nevada Caucus was “rigged” against her and anyone not Donald Trump by Nevada GOP Party officials. Nevada GOP Party Chair Michael McDonald Was indicted in December by a Nevada grand jury along with five other Republicans who submitted certificates to Congress falsely declaring Donald Trump the winner of the 2020 presidential election in their state. Nevada is the third state to seek charges against so-called fake Trump electors.
The Virgin Islands also held their GOP presidential caucus, selecting Donald Trump over Nikki Haley in the final round of voting, 68.8% to 20.6%. However, as a territory and not a state, the Virgin Islands cannot participate in the presidential general election in November.
The United States Supreme Court also heard oral arguments regarding the Colorado case, which tried to keep Donald Trump off the presidential ballot in 2024 because of his efforts to overturn his election loss in 2020. A ruling is expected shortly, with odds favoring a Trump victory, given the apparent skepticism expressed by the justices.
Joe Biden received the final report from the special counsel investigating his handling of classified documents. The special counsel, Robert K. Hur, determined that there was insufficient evidence to charge the 46th president with a crime for mishandling papers. Still, he did highlight what he concluded to be significant memory problems during his interview with investigators this past October. In an off-the-rails hastily-called late-day news conference, President Biden blasted the special counsel’s report, challenged the memory loss conclusion, welcomed the criminal exoneration, and blamed his staff for the document mishandling.
So, what did we learn from the Nevada & Virgin Islands results?
First, given the American public’s concerns about Joe Biden’s age and fitness for office, the memory charge, and other recent verbal gaffs and lost-on-stage looks, irreparable political damage may have been done to the Democrat’s presumed party nominee. Blaming his staff for the paper mishandling was lame. America has reason to be concerned about the mental strength of both major party presumptive nominees.
Second, the classified document handling case of Joe Biden is indeed far different than that of Donald Trump. Republican opinion makers want the American public to view the U.S. justice system as two-sided when it comes to these cases, but it is not. When confronted by FBI officials asking for the documents, Joe Biden and former Trump Vice President Mike Pence cooperated. Donald Trump attempted to obstruct his federal indictment alleges.
Third, a minimal number of party elites are choosing the GOP nominee for president. In Nevada, 59,000 caucus-goers selected Trump over Haley, even though the state has over 3.1 million residents. That’s 1.9% of the state's population elected Trump as their nominee for President. The trend was the same in the Virgin Islands. It's hardly democratic.
Finally, even though Donald Trump has won four primaries or caucuses to Nikki Haley’s none, Haley nevertheless has 17 delegates to Trump’s 63, with 1,215 required to win the Republic presidential nomination. South Carolina, Super Tuesday, and more court dates for Trump are coming up fast if Haley holds on.
February 6, 2024
The NEVADA PRIMARY…
On a remarkable day in American politics, President Joe Biden took all 36 delegates from the Nevada Primary, besting his opposition with 89.3% of the vote and 88% of the statewide vote counted as of this post. A category known as “None of the Above” took 5.8% of the vote, while candidate Marianne Williamson came in with 2.9%. More than 98,000 voted for President Biden. Congressman Dean Phillips did not compete in the Nevada Democrat primary. Williamson suspended her campaign at the end of the evening.
Former President Donald Trump did not compete in Nevada’s Republican primary. Still, his recommended vote for “None of the Above” won handily, with 63% of the vote given to Nikki Haley’s 33%. However, former Ambassador Haley did not campaign in the state for all practical purposes either.
The day's news was not the election itself but the word that Donald Trump lost his appeal and was immune from criminal prosecution for his 2020 election interference indictment pending in Washington, DC.
House Republicans also suffered two immensely embarrassing floor defeats when they were unable to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas as promised, and they could not pass their stand-alone funding for Israel in its war with Hamas. Chaos in the United States House of Representatives continues to wreak havoc.
Republican Senators let Donald Trump sink the highly-applauded Mexico border reform initiative because, as the 45th president said, he wants to use the southern immigration crisis as a campaign tool against the 46th president instead.
Topping off primary election day in Nevada was news that Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel will be resigning under pressure from Trump and other right-wing members of the party to be replaced, according to Trump’s team, with an election denier.
So, what did we learn from the Nevada results?
Not much, it would seem. The GOP continues to spiral down into a deep, dark, dysfunctional political hole with Donald Trump and Joe Biden marching on to what appear to be their inevitable party nominations for president.
February 3, 2024
THE SOUTH CAROLINA DEMOCRAT PRIMARY …
Incumbent president Joe Biden made it official with his first primary win in South Carolina, trouncing his two opponents, Marianne Williams and Congressman Dean Phillips. Williams received 2.1% of the vote, or 2,726 votes cast, while Phillips came in with 1.7%, or 2,239 votes cast. Biden earned 96.2% of the vote, with 126,231 votes, and 99% of the precincts reporting as of this update.
So, what did we learn from the South Carolina results?
First, the reported African-American vote to be lost for various media-implied reasons did not materialize. Clearly. Biden’s support within that community was solid and a testament to the vote of support the Palmetto State gave the 46th president in 2020.
Second, repeat primary candidate Marianne Williamson bested Congressman Dean Phillips, who had crowed he would perform much better in the primary contest against President Biden.
Third, this is a race to November between Biden and Trump with former Ambassador and South Carolina governor Nikki Haley pending her exit at a strategically opportune time.
Fourth, Donald Trump had a good day in federal court. His DC trial has been delayed indefinitely until the Supreme Court decides whether he—or any president—has absolute immunity from criminal prosecution.
Fifth, Donald Trump had a bad day in court when the writer E. Jean Carroll won a jury award of $83.3 million in her second defamation case against the former president. On May 9, 2023, the jury found Trump liable for sexual abuse and awarded Ms. Carroll a $5 million judgment for defamation in her first case.
January 24, 2024
The new Hampshire Primary …
Dixville Notch offered anti-Trumpers one very brief but then fleeting ray of sunshine a little after midnight that Donald Trump could be derailed from the Republican nomination when all six of the community’s voters gave their nod to former South Carolina governor and former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley.
Some twenty hours or so later, however, Trump had defeated Haley 54.4% to 43.3%, with more than 300,000 votes cast between them. Haley vowed nevertheless to soldier on into her home state of South Carolina, where the 45th president is leading in public polls by a significant margin.
Trump’s conciliatory post-election message in Iowa gave way to a rant-and-rave message clearly showing his irritation that Haley intended to stay in the race and not throw in the towel just yet.
So, what did we learn from the New Hampshire results?
First and foremost, it is hard to see how Donald Trump will not be the ultimate Republican nominee for the White House in 2024. Some three-quarters of Republican New Hampshire voters gave their approval to his candidacy.
Haley will not be on the February 8th ballot in Nevada. Donald Trump will prevail in another third round of Republican voting, putting even more pressure on the former South Carolina governor to throw in the towel.
Haley’s “sweet state of South Carolina” will be sourer than she expects when they hold their February 24th primary in the Palmetto State. Between now and then, Donald Trump’s vendetta against Nikki Haley will be on full display, creating yet more angst for Americans who are disillusioned by his hateful rants.
Republican voters in Iowa and New Hampshire are ignoring the fact that their presumptive nominee will be heavily burdened with baggage going into the general election due to his 91 felony counts, numerous court cases, and headline-making infidelities with porn stars, not to mention his thousands of documented lies.
Independents will be the key to the White House in November, and the red flag for Trump is that Nikki Haley, without significant Democrat votes factored in, took the overwhelming majority of those votes from Trump. Trump was down to 75% of his base’s support, around 90% in 2020, when he lost the White House.
What is not clear is why so many Republicans and Independents are sticking with such a flawed personality with their hopes of electoral victory in November. Except for former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, none of Trump’s Republican opponents in 2024 took these concerns to the voting public during the primary season. Joe Biden will make a difference in determining who the next occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania will be in January 2025.
January 21, 2024
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the once widely anointed and -speculated alternative to Donald Trump, dropped out of the Republican race for the White House before the first primary ballots were even counted.
January 16, 2024
The Iowa Caucus …
January has roared in like a lion, to use an apt metaphor. Temperatures in the Hawkeye State on GOP Caucus Day 2024 were frigid and frightening.
Democrats had long abandoned snowy Iowa (and New Hampshire) for a first-in-the-nation primary in James Clyburn’s and Nikki Haley’s South Carolina.
Even the campaign-cash-strapped Florida Governor, Ron DeSantis, has chosen to leave Iowa with a diminishing second-place payday in favor of South Carolina. Surrendering, for all intents and purposes, New Hampshire Republican voters overwhelmingly seem to prefer the multi-indicted Donald J. Trump or the former South Carolina governor and UN ambassador.
On Election Day, they yielded a 51% victory for Donald Trump with 56,260 votes, a 21.2% second-place finish for DeSantis with 23,420 votes, and a 19.1% finish for Haley with 2,1,085 votes. The turnout was 110,000 voters. National media and political pundits called it a convincing victory for Trump. But was it?
Facts to consider:
In 2020, when Donald Trump was the dominant candidate, he ran the table, taking all 99 counties with 97% of the vote against another Governor (Bill Weld of Massachusetts) and a former Congressman (Joe Walsh of Illinois). The turnout was also around 110,000 voters.
In 2016, when Donald Trump was the new candidate on the block, he came in second to U.S. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas with 24.3% to Cruz’s 27.6%, having significant players like Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Carly Fiorina, and Mike Huckabee in the mix. Trump won seven delegates, while Cruz won eight delegates. The turnout was significantly higher at 187,000 voters.
Credible ad tracking indicates that DeSantis and his allied PACs spent $35 million in Iowa alone, while DeSantis also concentrated most of his campaigning time in the Hawkeye State.
Credible ad tracking indicates that Haley and her allied PACs spent $37 million in Iowa alone. At the same time, Haley concentrated a considerable amount of her campaigning time in several states, not just Iowa.
Credible ad tracking indicates that Trump and her allied PACs spent $18 million in Iowa alone. At the same time, Trump concentrated much of his campaigning time in courts of law and outside of Iowa, where he visited more infrequently.
Several observations about the Iowa Caucus seem in order:
Donald Trump’s Iowa victory, while clear, demonstrates that his rapid base has dropped significantly from 2016 and 2020 with him only taking 51% of the vote in 2024. The folks who came out to vote Monday night, are the most rabid in favor of 45, yet one out of every two Iowa caucus-goers voted for someone other than Donald J. Trump, demonstrating that his once mighty hold on the GOP electorate is slipping which is problematic for his 2024 general election ambitions.
Those voters who did turn out in Iowa this year very clearly are not fazed by having a party nominee who has been indicted four times and defending against 91 felony charges; has been impeached twice; incited a riot at the United States Capitol as evidenced by extensive video coverage; attempted to overturn the 2020 presidential election with fake electors and intimidating phone calls to state election officials; stole top-secret U.S. government documents and refused to return them despite federal subpoena; was found liable for sexual abuse, business, and charitable fraud; lost re-election in 2020; and botched many other races for his party.
Trump’s Republican nomination challengers in 2024 were and are very much afraid of him, repeatedly failing to call him to account with the voters during 2023 and thus far in 2024 despite his ethically- and democracy-littered track record. DeSantis is out of money. Haley is disliked by many established Republicans because she is too moderate and too wishy-washy for their tastes. Former New Jersey governor Chris Christie dropped out before the first votes were counted. As did Trump’s former Vice President Mike Pence, U.S. Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum. Former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson was highly ineffective and venture capitalist Vivek Ramaswamy was highly annoying and conceited.
Ron DeSantis’ attacks on library books, school boards, and the Walt Disney Company along with ignoring the media other than Newsmax and Fox and claiming that the state of Florida was everyone’s answer to challenging issues, all hurt the Sunshine State Governor as he campaigned in 2023. Remember, “Ron DeSanctimonious” was the heir-apparent to Donald Trump – until he started speaking and awkwardly meeting voters.
Iowa foretells America that we will indeed have a rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden in 2024. New Hampshire will likely prove it. The only caveats to the Emperor’s return are if: 1) the United States Supreme Court rules that Trump committed insurrection and thus under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment is not eligible to be on state ballots; 2) Trump is convicted federally or in Georgia and people decide not to vote for him, therefore, being dumped from the nomination if it comes soon enough; 3) Independents flock to Biden over Trump over all of the Trump-generated chaos assuming, of course, a viable third party candidate does not materialize by mid-March; or, 4) Biden gets his act together and beats Trump again anyway.
Winter’s snows make one shiver in more ways than one.
Thomas invites you to read: Again?
Also read: Rise Up Independents?
The Original Post - January 13, 2024
The first votes start with a frigid blizzard…
The Iowa Caucuses are here and the results will be telling. New Hampshire is around the corner. South Carolina’s primaries are on their heels.
What do the early votes of 2024’s cold and snowy winter portend for American democracy?
Team Thomas has our latest thoughts here starting Monday and will update as events unfold.
Stay tuned. The political road ahead is icy and perhaps a wee bit treacherous!