Connected at the Hip …
Florida, the Sunshine State, will be key to Donald J. Trump’s reelection this November. The stakes may even turn out to be winner-take-all in the already bruising race for the White House against Democrat Joseph R. Biden, the former Vice President of the United States under Barack Obama.
Connected to the 45th president’s hip is Ronald Dion DeSantis, the current Governor of Florida. As a Congressman before his razor-thin election to the statehouse in 2018, DeSantis was a vocal and unapologetic defender of Mr. Trump during the first two years of his contentious Administration.
The faltering U.S. economy, hobbled by the troublesome novel coronavirus pandemic, will be a critical factor in determining how Florida voters will judge the reelection efforts of both men: Mr. Trump in 2020 and the 46th Governor's rumored planned 2024 run for president.
Candidate Trump barely won Florida in the 2016 campaign against the highly unpopular and controversial Democrat opponent, Hillary Rodham Clinton, 48.6% to 47.4%, a 1.2% margin of victory.
Candidate DeSantis himself eked out a margin of victory of less than half a percent over Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, 49.59% to 49.19%. Thus, it has not yet been established that the 41-year-old Governor has any coattails to offer the President in his 2020 race.
An Evolving Political Landscape
The Florida election landscape is very different in 2020 than it was in 2016. Democrats hold a 37.3% to 35.3% advantage in voter registration in the summer months.
Independents who tended to favor Mr. Trump over Secretary Clinton in 2016 have 27.3% of the Florida vote themselves and do not appear to be enamored with the President recently over a host of issues, including severe social unrest in many of our communities and alleged knowledge of Russian bounties paid to the Taliban to kill American soldiers. Florida is a vast military state.
Mr. Trump’s handling of COVID-19 nationally has been haphazard at best. Critics will argue that the President has failed to establish a consistent federal response to containing the virus, daily denying its deadly impact on America as the number of new cases continues to skyrocket. Nothing has been more symbolic than Mr. Trump’s stubborn refusal to wear a protective face mask in public or practice social distancing at his events.
Proponents of the President will tell you that he has saved millions of lives since the pandemic began and that he should not be held accountable for a virus he did not create. Supporters will also point to what they believe is a rapidly improving national economy, Trump’s Cares Act checks, and new job creation since America started re-opening for business again.
For his part, Governor DeSantis has pretty well mirrored the President’s philosophy when handling the virus’s spread in Florida. Like President Trump, Governor DeSantis has refused to heed the advice of health experts on how best to contain COVID-19, and he has often delayed quick action on steps that might have successfully mitigated its viral spread.
Both political leaders have attempted to manipulate public data on the virus’ spread to make the numbers appear more favorable to their management styles. Mr. Trump and Mr. DeSantis have penalized staff for speaking out of turn on their positions regarding the disease's containment.
Many Floridians are deeply frustrated that they have sacrificed for several months to help contain the coronavirus only to see the numbers spike wildly because people will not wear masks, maintain proper social distancing, or self-quarantine when they do not feel well. It looks like it will be at least several more months before the virus is relatively under control again.
So much for good governance, these frustrated citizens say.
Absent an Opponent?
Interestingly, the presumptive Democratic nominee, Mr. Biden, has been nowhere to be seen in Florida during the statewide COVID-19 debate. Mr. Trump recently moved his official residency to Palm Beach County.
With 29 electoral college votes at stake this November, what has been going on with the pandemic in Florida that is worth noting? This timeline of events and political controversies may help provide better context when handicapping the Florida election:
March 15, 2020
The first reported cases of COVID-19, 39 new cases, are recorded in Florida. Walt Disney World announced that it is closing at least until March 30.
March 19
Governor DeSantis ends traditional college Spring break at Florida beaches after days of criticism about his lack of or delay in taking obvious action to abate the spreading virus.
March 24
DeSantis tells New Yorkers who are experiencing the rapid spread of the virus to stay home and not come to Florida, wrongly blaming New Yorkers for the virus's spread in Florida. DeSantis issues a 14-day quarantine order for out-of-state visitors from hot zones like New York who are coming to Florida. Two hundred forty-five new virus cases are recorded in Florida this day.
March 30
Thirty states have already issued stay-at-home orders to combat the virus. DeSantis says he won’t do the same for Florida without federal guidance and direction. President Trump then recommended social distancing and said there should be no travel through April 30.
April 1
DeSantis finally issued a Florida statewide stay-at-home order through April 30. Florida has 7,000 cases and has recorded 87 deaths so far. The governor has decided to ban social gatherings of more than ten people but does not require that beaches be closed. Religious places are exempted from his order. One thousand twenty-seven new cases are recorded this day alone.
April 17
Florida reached its highest point during the closed phase of the virus, with 1,413 new cases on this date.
April 28
President Trump hosts Governor DeSantis in the Oval Office and praises his handling of the coronavirus in Florida and planned re-opening of the state as his stay-at-home order expires.
May 1
DeSantis’ stay-at-home order expires. One thousand thirty-seven new cases for the day are recorded. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Infections recommended re-opening states when 14-day downward trajectories in new cases are reported.
May 4
Florida’s new cases have dropped to 819 when DeSantis permitted limited re-opening. Controversy swirls as the Governor blocks Florida’s medical examiners from making public their fatality reports, which are much less favorable to the state control image, not to mention it is learned that the Governor’s office is not including probable COVID-19 cases in the official tallies.
May 18
Governor DeSantis re-opens Florida with a fully revised Phase 1 strategy that permits 50% restaurant seating and gym participation. Florida has 854 new cases this day. However, the CDC guidelines on re-opening states have not been met. DeSantis is reportedly taking victory laps around the state, claiming he successfully managed the virus. His original Phase 1 re-opening strategy was for 25% restaurant seating but no gyms, salons, etc. in this phase. Professional sports teams are now welcome to play and host games with fans attending.
May 19
DeSantis fires his virus data manager over manipulating data reporting disagreement. Rebekah Jones discloses her dismissal.
May 25
It is Memorial Day. Florida reports 879 new cases today.
June 4
Some ten days later, Florida records 1,419 new virus cases, the state’s single-day high ever since closing the state. The incubation period for COVID-19 is between two to 14 days. DeSantis permits bars, entertainment, and personal care locations to open.
June 16
Governor DeSantis welcomes the 2020 Republican National Convention to Jacksonville on a day when new virus cases hit 2,783 in 24 hours.
June 27
Florida is stunned to learn that 9,585 new virus cases were reported for the previous 14-hour period, the all-time highest single day ever. DeSantis ordered bars immediately closed in Florida to help curb the virus spread among younger adults, who the Governor says are ignoring compliance and responsible for the uptick.
July 1
Florida has now registered 152,436 total cases since March 15th, with 3,504 deaths also recorded. On the day the state initially closed back on April 1st, only 1,027 new cases were reported. DeSantis and the state had 819 new cases on the day Florida re-opened. That was May 4th. Sixty days later, with Independence Day weekend looming, 9,585 new single-day cases were reported in Florida. That number was considered among the highest in the nation, and New York is now ordering quarantine of Floridians traveling to the Empire State.
Payback is hell, as they say. President Trump and Governor DeSantis are battling this trend as they fight to control the coronavirus under their respective jurisdictions. Will they win? Can they win? Will it be four more years for the President?
Florida’s unemployment rate has soared to a staggering 14.5% during the pandemic. The Governor has already had to slash more than $1 billion from the just-passed state budget to address COVID-19-related expenses and revenue shortfalls, despite more than $4 billion in federal funds from the President and Congress to soften the virus's impact.
Suppose checkbook issues ultimately swing an election to one candidate or another. In that case, 2020 will be a rude awakening for the GOP in Florida, absent a miracle cure for the virus within the next four months.
The President’s base will be in Florida. He appears to have lost a large portion of the Independent vote that supported him in 2016, and Democrats are fired up to take him out of office in 2020. Can the President recover his support in time to win re-election?
Being connected at the hip with Mr. Trump may have its downside, too. If the current trend holds, being a mini-Trump, as DeSantis is often labeled, could also derail the Governor’s planned move from 700 North Adams Street to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
Stay tuned. As the late, great Tim Russert once famously said, it’s “Florida. Florida. Florida.” Again. And Florida Man rules here lately.