Thomas
Thomas
A modern American political mediazine

spring’s conundrum

 

Editor’s Note: The original publication of this article began on March 19, 2024, and will be updated where noted in reverse chronological order as events occur.

April 28, 2024

PUERTO RICO DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY

Joe Biden won the Puerto Rico Democratic presidential primary with 91.3% of the vote. Biden collected another 55 delegates for his convention count.

So, what did we learn from these primary results?

  • President Biden continues to show solid party strength in the presidential primaries.

April 23, 2024

PENNSYLVANIA REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY

Donald Trump won the delegates from the election but still lost 16.6% of the vote to Nikki Haley who dropped out months ago.

So, what did we learn from these primary results?

  • Former president Donald Trump does not have a lock on his primary voters.

April 3, 2024

CONNECTICUT, NEW YORK, RHODE ISLAND AND WISCONSIN PRIMARIES

Donald Trump continues racking up Republican delegates with wins in Connecticut with 77.9% of the vote, 82.1% in New York, 84.4% in Rhode Island, and 79.2% in Wisconsin.

Joe Biden took 84.8% of the Democratic vote in Connecticut, 91.5% of the vote in New York, 82.6% of the vote in Rhode Island, and 88.6% of the vote in Wisconsin.

So, what did we learn from these primary results?

  • Joe Biden continues to lose a troubling number of votes in Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin to uncommitted or uninstructed voters. This trend is alarming for an incumbent president who has already wrapped up the Democratic convention delegate hunt.

  • The same can be said for Donald Trump who lost more than ten percent of the vote in each state holding a primary on April 3rd.

  • Both candidates have protest votes to worry about. Will these lost votes translate in November’s general election?

  • Who will Donald Trump's running mate be?

April 2, 2024

DELAWARE PRIMARIES

Delaware canceled their primaries.

So, what did we learn from the Delaware primary results?

  • Not much.

March 30, 2024

NORTH DAKOTA DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Joe Biden won with a strong 92.4% of the Democratic vote.

So, what did we learn from the primary results of North Dakota?

  • Not much.

March 26, 2024

KENNEDY RUNNING MATE ANNOUNCED

Robert Kennedy Jr. announced that businesswoman and philanthropist Nicole Shanahan would be his running mate for the November general election.

So, what did we learn from the running mate announcement?

  • Shanahan lacks significant political experience to bring to the ticket other than having been a dedicated Democratic donor in recent years and the former wife of a Google founder. Nicole Shanahan brings wealth to the ticket that should help the pair gain access to and pay for entry on state ballots nationwide.

  • Kennedy’s running mate is a far-left candidate, so it will be interesting to see how voters respond to another extreme candidate.

March 23, 2024

LOUISIANA PRIMARY AND MISSOURI DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Joe Biden won the Missouri Democratic primary with 85.3% of the vote, while 11.7% of voters marked their ballots as uncommitted.

Trump won 89.8% of the vote in Louisiana, and Biden fared slightly better.

So, what did we learn from the Missouri and Louisiana primary results?

  • Not much.

March 19, 2024

ARIZONA, FLORIDA, ILLINOIS, AND KANSAS PRIMARIES & NORTH DAKOTA GOP PRIMARY

Nikki Haley lost the North Dakota GOP presidential primary to Donald Trump, who took all 29 delegates from the state with 84.6% to 14.1% of the vote.

Trump took 78.8% of the vote in Arizona, 81.2% of the vote in Florida, 80.6% of the vote in Illinois, and 75.5% of the vote in Kansas.

So, what did we learn from these primary results?

  • Not much counts, considering that Biden and Trump are the formal presumptive nominees of their respective parties, having amassed many more delegates than required to receive their nominations on the first ballot at their conventions.

  • On the other hand, the trends should be troubling for both political parties because Trump continues to lose a respectable percentage of his vote in each election. Florida, mainly, was surprising in that 18.8% of the electorate voted for Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis as what appeared to be a sizeable protest vote. Haley dropped out of the race on March 6th, and DeSantis dropped out on January 21st.

  • Haley beat DeSantis in his home state as the likely protest vote preference, which could indicate the Florida Governor’s waning popularity among Republicans.

 
 

Several observations about Winter’s choices seem in order: 

  • Donald Trump and Joe Biden remain less than enthusiastic choices for their party’s nomination. Polling consistently indicates that voters would like another choice than who they have now gained as a result of the Winter’s primaries.

  • The former president’s legal woes are front and center in the primary calendar, but it appears that Donald Trump is succeeding in delaying his many court dates.

  • Robert Kennedy, Jr., is gaining strength as an independent candidate for president.

Winter’s snow made one shiver in more ways than one. Let’s see what surprises Spring brings us.

Thomas invites you to read: Again?

Also read: Rise Up Independents?

The Original Post - January 13, 2024

The first votes start with a frigid blizzard…

The Iowa Caucuses are here and the results will be telling. New Hampshire is around the corner. South Carolina’s primaries are on their heels.

What do the early votes of 2024’s cold and snowy winter portend for American democracy?

Team Thomas has our latest thoughts here starting Monday and will update as events unfold.

Stay tuned. The political road ahead is icy and perhaps a wee bit treacherous!