U.S. Senate Battle Rounds 2026
The battle rounds on The Voice are a great competition to watch. They sum up what is happening in the United States Senate today, as they did for us in 2020, 2022 and 2024 - and two thousand twenty-six promises to be no different.
Several “next season Battle Round” competitions are gearing up in various states. The outcomes will help determine whether the Republicans can retain control of the Senate after the 2026 elections or if Democrats can regain the home-field advantage after a stunning loss in the November 2024 elections thanks to a series of political and electoral missteps.
South Dakota Senator John Thune, who has labored for years in the Republican leadership ranks, took over from Mitch McConnell who served as the top Republican Senator through the administrations of several U.S. presidents, including Trump 45.
The Senate Republican Conference Chair is Tom Cotton of Arkansas, the Senate Republican Policy Committee Chair is Shelly Moore Capito of West Virginia, and the National Republican Senate Campaign Chair is Tim Scott of South Carolina.
The Senate Democratic Steering and Policy Committee Chair is Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chair is Kristen Gillibrand of New York.
Two United States Senators were appointed by their respective governors in 2025 when their predecessors were picked for roles in the Trump 47 Administration:
Ohio’s Jon Husted replaced U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance.
Florida’s Ashley Moody replaced U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Twenty-two Republicans will be standing for re-election in 2026 while only 13 Democrats have to defend their seats.
With an agonizingly slim 53 to 47 GOP margin in the Senate, the stakes are exceptionally high for both parties, particularly President Donald J. Trump and his exponentially aggressive hard fought second-term governing agenda.
We will keep you posted!
The seven races we are watching the most closely in 2026
Credit: US Senator Ashley Moody
ashley moody of Florida
Appointed to the U.S Senate in January 2025 to fill the seat of Marco Rubio, who moved over to be Donald Trump’s Secretary of State, Ashley Moody has an election to win in 2026 and then will have to run again in 2028 for a full term.
Moody has twice won statewide elections in Florida to be the Sunshine State’s Attorney General in 2018 and again in 2022, winning this last race handily with 60.59% of the vote.
However, Moody has earned the ire of political independents and moderate Democrats in the state because of her leadership in trying to invalidate the Affordable Care Act and to overturn the 2020 presidential election.
A highly reliable supporter of Ron DeSantis, it will be interesting to see how the new Senator gets along with members of the Trump 47 Administration.
See the Senator’s official office website here.
See Ashley Moody’s campaign website here.
nudging republican
Credit: US Senator Jon Ossoff
Jon Ossoff of georgia
Georgia’s senior United States Senator barely won election in 2020 but did beat incumbent Republican David Perdue.
Since then, Ossoff has been a dependable vote for President Biden which makes his re-election to an increasingly red state in 2026 more problematic.
Working to Ossoff’s advantage will be strong case work support along with the historical trend that Presidents elected in one cycle tend to loose seats in the off-cycle elections.
See the Senator’s official office website here.
See Jon Ossoff’s campaign website here.
It’s a race
Credit: US Senator Susan Collins
susan collins of maine
Maine’s senior U.S. Senator Susan Collins was first elected in 1996 and was subsequently re-elected four more times.
However, in recent times, Maine’s electorate has been trending blue which may present Collins with a tough race in 2026 if the moderate does not draw a MAGA primary in the meantime.
Collins has given both parties something to dislike. For Republicans, the Senator voted against repealing the Affordable Care Act and did vote to convict Donald Trump in his second impeachment trial. Democrats were not happy when Collins supported Brett Kavanaugh’s elevation to the Supreme Court believing he would not vote to overturn Roe v. Wade. He did.
See the Senator’s official office website here.
See Susan Collins’ campaign website here.
it’s a race
Credit: US Senator Gary Peters
gary peters of michigan
Michigan’s senator since 2015 has announced that he will be retiring and not seeking re-election in 2026.
The state has been trending red these past couple of years so it will be a hard fought campaign for candidates from either party to win his race.
We will keep an eye out for who might lead the charge to either win this seat or save it.
See the Senator’s official office website here.
open seat - it’s a race
Credit: U.S. Sen. Tina Smith
Tina Smith of Minnesota
Minnesota’s junior Senator has announced that she is not running for re-election to a second full term in 2026 which makes this race one to watch.
A slightly moderate state politically, many believe this race will lean blue, which we agree with but the electoral margins in Minnesota make this a race that we project at this point to be Nudging Democrat, depending upon who enters the race.
Current Governor and 2024 Vice Presidential Nominee Tim Walz is said to be considering the race.
See the Senator’s official office website here.
open seat - Nudging Democrat
Credit: US Senator Jeanne Shaheen
jeanne shaheen of new hampshire
New Hampshire has been slightly favorable to Democrats these past few years, meaning that re-election to the Senate will be no walk in the park, even if you are Jeanne Shaheen, a United States Senator since 2015 and a former governor.
Known as one of the most bipartisan senators in the chamber, Shaheen has worked hard as a legislator for her state. Electorally, she has also been a fighter, defeating the popular John Sununu in 2002 and 2008 and the former Massachusetts senator, Scott Brown, in 2014. In her last campaign, Senator Shaheen earned 57% of the vote.
But this is New Hampshire today, where political independents have come on strong. Her ability to prevail in 2026 depended greatly on who Republicans might put up against her and how MAGA that candidate might be. The Senator instead announced that she will not be a candidate in 2026. popular former New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu and former Massachusetts U.S. Senator Scott Brown are reported potential GOP candidates.
See the Senator’s official office website here.
See Jeanne Shaheen’s campaign website here.
It’s a race
Credit: U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis
Thom Tills of North Carolina
North Carolina has been the scene of quite a few highly contested statewide races in recent years, although its redness has been holding somewhat and maybe more so after Democrats botched Hurricane Helene assistance recently.
Tillis has been having his moments with MAGA republicans in recent months, however, which may make the Senator who was first elected in 2014 somewhat vulnerable. We will have to watch and see what happens.
See the Senator’s official office website here.
See Thom Tillis’ campaign website here.
NUDGING REPUBLICAN
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The Democracy Stars & Failures by State
Now, as for the remaining members in addition to Minnesota’s Tina Smith and New Hampshire’s Jeanne Shaheen above, two other (so far) of the U.S. senators of the 35 who are up for re-election in 2026 are retiring. They are:
Mitch McConnell (R) of Kentucky
Gary Peters (D) of Michigan
Nineteen of the Republican senators up for election and appear at this point to be running in 2026 appear safe GOP bets, in our opinion. They are:
Tommy Tuberville of Alabama
Dan Sullivan of Alaska
Tom Cotton of Arkansas
James Risch of Idaho
Joni Ernst of Iowa
Roger Marshall of Kansas
Bill Cassidy of Louisiana
Cindy Hyde-Smith of Mississippi
Steve Daines of Montana
Pete Ricketts of Nebraska
Jon Husted of Ohio
Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma
Lindsey Graham of South Carolina
Mike Rounds of South Dakota
Bill Hagerty of Tennessee
John Cornyn of Texas
Shelly Moore Capito of West Virginia
Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming
Safe bet Democratic seats look to be:
John Hickenlooper of Colorado
Chris Coons of Delaware
Dick Durbin of Illinois
Ed Markey of Massachusetts
Tina Smith of Minnesota
Cory Booker of New Jersey
Ben Ray Lujan of New Mexico
Jeff Merkeley of Oregon
Jack Reed of Rhode Island
Mark Warner of Virginia
the senate is nudging republican
Given that we see three Republican Senators and three Democratic Senators contesting for re-election in 2026, plus one more open Democratic seat in Minnesota, it is hard to make the call on who will or will not control the Senate after the midterm elections.
Thomas believes there is a significant opportunity for the GOP to hold control of the United States Senate in 2026.
Republicans overturning Roe vs. Wade is hurting them immensely. But what happens to Donald Trump in 2024 - whether he is re-elected or convicted - will have an even more significant impact on these races.
Although we warn you now, don’t bet the farm just yet. 2026, like 2024, is going to be a very bumpy ride. It will be a referendum on American democracy or American dictatorship, as we have said.
We will keep you posted!