U.S. Senate Battle Rounds 2024
The battle rounds on The Voice are a great competition to watch. They sum up what is happening in the United States Senate today, as they did for us in 2020 and 2022—two thousand twenty-four promises to be no different.
Several “next season Battle Round” competitions are gearing up in various states. The outcomes will help determine whether the Democrats can retain control of the Senate after 2024 or if Republicans can regain the home-field advantage after a stunning loss in the January 2021 Georgia run-off elections and subsequent missteps.
Five Democrat and three Republican senators have announced their intention to retire, run for another office, or died thus far.
Again, the stakes are exceptionally high for both parties, particularly President Joe Biden and his governing agenda.
We will keep you posted.
The FIVE races we are watching the most closely in 2024
Credit: US Senator Kyrsten Sinema
kyrsten sinema of arizona
The former Democrat who abruptly changed parties mid-term alienated a significant portion of her political base in Arizona after declaring herself an Independent. With considerable opposition from a Democrat delegation member with all the money that goes with party membership, Senator Sinema has decided not to seek re-election in 2024.
To make matters even trickier, the election-denier candidate for governor who lost the last election is running on the Republican ticket.
This race will be a close one to watch as the battle for control of the Senate in 2024 comes down to a small handful of seats.
See the Senator’s official office website here.
See Kyrsten Sinema’s campaign website here.
it’s a race
Credit: US Senator Jon Tester
jon tester of montana
Incumbent Senator Jon Tester, a farmer from Big Sky Country, comes right out of central casting for the hit series Yellowstone.
The only Democrat holding statewide office, Tester has won his elections by close margins in an otherwise red state. Republicans are salivating at the chance unseating the senior senator might offer.
Steve Daines, the junior senator from Montana, heads the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee, which will fund the significant opposition that will come Jon Tester’s way in 2024.
This race will be critical to who controls the Senate in 2025.
See the Senator’s official office website here.
See Jon Tester’s campaign website here.
nudging democrat but highly vulnerable
Credit: US Senator Sherrod Brown
sherrod brown of ohio
Another of the senior senators for their states, Buckeye State’s Sherrod Brown, has been battle-tested over the years, winning very significant races in both the U.S. House and the U.S. Senate to get to where he is today.
Ohio is essentially a solid red state by any other measure, but Senator Brown's desire to remain in the Senate for another term is not to be taken lightly.
A master politician who likes to take care of his constituency, this seat will be a little tougher for Senate Republicans to flip in 2024. Anything is possible in this critical election year, so let’s see where history takes us.
Will democracy die in 2024 in America?
See the Senator’s official office website here.
See Sherrod Brown’s campaign website here.
nudging democrat but vulnerable
Credit: US Senator Rick Scott
rick scott of florida
The junior senator from the Sunshine State may have his hands full in this election cycle. His often unfailing support for Donald Trump has enraged many Democrats and even some Independents. Rick Scott has squeaked by his two Senate elections to date by very slim margins, and he is highly unpopular for his stands on social security and Medicare funding cuts in a state with a sizeable elderly population.
If a Democrat or Independent opponent makes an issue of the 75 times he took the Fifth Amendment protections against self-incrimination. He made it stick, this United States Senator could be more vulnerable than pundits might predict.
Thomas will keep a close watch on this race for just that reason.
See the Senator’s official office website here.
See Rick Scott’s campaign website here.
nudging republican but vulnerable
Disclosure: Editor-in-Chief Ben Everidge is a candidate for this seat in 2024. The ranking was made several months prior to any decision to run.
Credit: US Senator Ted Cruz
ted cruz of texas
The junior senator from Texas may have his hands full in this election cycle with a challenge he has from a famous former NFL player who is a current member of the House of Representatives. Senator Cruz has been a rock-solid election denier for President Trump and a thorn in the side of congressional action on critical initiatives. Early in his legal career, Cruz was a law clerk for J. Michael Luttig, a highly respected U.S. Court of Appeals judge who has been a staunch advocate for preventing Donald Trump from being on the ballot in 2024 because of his role in the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol. Cruz takes the 180-degree opposite position that Trump should be re-elected president.
The voting public in Texas leans very conservative. Still, it will be interesting to see how they react to Cruz’s opposition in the Senate to perhaps the most robust immigration reform legislation in the past 40 years that could have significantly benefited the Lone Star State with the crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border, much of which runs through the state he represents. If so, this United States Senator could be more vulnerable than pundits might predict.
Thomas will keep a close watch on this race for just that reason.
See the Senator’s official office website here.
See Ted Cruz’s campaign website here.
u.s. rEP. COLIN ALLRED
The Texas Congressman is the Democratic Nominee for the U.S. Senate seat. A former NFL player, who was linebacker for the Tennessee Titans, Colin Allred, is the polar opposite of Senator Ted Cruz. A graduate of the University of California Berkeley Law School, Allred has made this an even chance race already.
See the Congressman’s official House website here.
See the Congressman’s campaign website here.
IT’S A RACE
Thomas invites you to See Our Rankings on:
The Democracy Stars & Failures by State
Seven senators of the 34 who are up for re-election in 2024 are retiring. They are:
Laphonza Butler (D) of California
Tom Carper (D) of Delaware
Mike Braun (R) of Indiana
Ben Cardin (D) of Maryland
Debbie Stabenow (D) of Michigan
Mitt Romney (R) of Utah
Joe Manchin (D) of West Virginia
Five Democrats and only two Republicans are retiring, which poses a significant challenge to the majority party controlling the United States Senate today.
In addition to Rick Scott of Florida, who we think is far more vulnerable than opponents give him credit for, seven of the Republican senators up for election and are running in 2024 appear safe GOP bets, in our opinion. They are:
Roger Wicker of Mississippi
Josh Hawley of Missouri
Deb Fischer of Nebraska
Pete Ricketts of Nebraska
Kevin Cramer of North Dakota
Marsha Blackburn on Tennessee
John Barrasso of Wyoming
Retiring Indiana Senator Mike Braun’s seat appears to be a safe bet for a Republican call. The same can be said for Mitt Romney’s seat in Utah. If we were going to add a wild card GOP seat to the mix, it would be:
Ted Cruz of Texas
We believe Bernie Sanders’s seat is a safe bet Independent decision among the Independents. Angus King in Maine is also likely safe but could be added to the watch list later, depending on what Democrats choose to do in that race.
As for Democrats? They have their work cut out for them. The seats to watch but still too far away from possible defeat to call it today:
Debbie Stabenow’s seat in Michigan
Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota
Jackie Rosen of Nevada
Martin Heinrich of New Mexico
Bob Casey, Jr., of Pennsylvania
Tim Kaine of Virginia
Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin
Of the retiring Democratic senators, Republicans are well positioned to flip:
Joe Manchin of West Virginia
Of the retiring Democratic senators, Democrats will likely keep:
Laphonza Butler’s seat in California
Tom Carper’s seat in Delaware
Safe bet Democratic seats look to be:
Chris Murphy of Connecticut
Mazie Hirono of Hawaii
Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts
Bob Menendez of New Jersey, if he is convicted and expelled
Kristen Gillibrand of New York
Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island
Maria Cantell of Washington
nudging republican
Given the sheer number of retiring Democratic senators compared to Republican senators and given the number of Democratic seats that are competitive compared to Republican senators, Thomas believes there is a significant opportunity for the GOP to retake control of the United States Senate from Democrats.
Republicans overturning Roe vs. Wade is hurting them immensely. But what happens to Donald Trump in 2024 - whether he is re-elected or convicted - will have an even more significant impact on these races.
In other words, don’t bet the farm just yet. 2024 is going to be a very bumpy ride. It will be a referendum on American democracy or American dictatorship, as we have said.
We will keep you posted!