Thomas
Thomas
A modern American political mediazine for independents

senate 2024

 
 
 
 

the flip may be coming …

Joe Manchin’s decision to sit out the 2024 Senate election to run around the nation instead of seeing if America has the stomach for a third-party presidential candidate has upended the race for control of the United States Senate – at least for now.

Manchin, the conservative former Governor and now Senator from West Virginia since a special election in 2010, has been a thorn in the side of Democrats but he has consistently won in and represented the solid-red Mountaineer state thus far.

Thirty-three seats are up for grabs in this election cycle as part of the regular class schedule.  Ten seats are held by Republicans today while twenty seats are held by Democrats and three seats are held by Independents who up to this point have been caucusing with the Democrats.

There are also two special elections happening at the same time.  One to fill the remainder of the six-year term for the late Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) and the other for two years remaining on the six-year term Ben Sasse (R-NE) was elected to in 2020 but vacated in 2023 to take the presidency at the University of Florida.

A lot is at stake for the nation with the 2024 election cycle.  Forty-eight Democrats and three Independents comprise the current majority in the Senate.  Republicans hold 49 seats and are thus only a whisker away from taking command of the upper chamber especially given that Democrats will need to win more than twice as many seats in 2024 to stay in power.

Control of the Senate is seen by Thomas as a toss-up currently but nudging Republican.

We are watching several key races worth mentioning here:

  • Joe Manchin’s West Virginia seat is expected to go to a Republican in 2024.  Safe Republican.

  • Sherrod Brown in Ohio has the competitive advantage as an incumbent even though Joe Biden did not win the state in 2020 against Donald Trump.  Nudging Democrat.

  • Wyoming’s Jon Tester also has the competitive advantage as an incumbent in a state Joe Biden lost in 2024 as well.  Nudging Democrat.

  • Ben Sasse’s special election seat is Safe Republican for Peter Ricketts.

  • It’s a Race is Kyrsten Sinema in Arizona.

  • Seats that Senators are retiring from in 2024 will most likely remain in their current parties’ hands which are Laphonza Butler (D-CA), Ben Cardin (D-MD), Tom Carper (D-DE), Mitt Romney (R-UT), and Debbie Stabenow (D-MI).  Democrats are Safe Democrat in California, Maryland, and Delaware, and Nudging Democrats in Michigan,  Romney’s lone Republican seat in this scenario is Safe Republican.

  • Mike Braun (R-IN) is seeking another office in 2024 but his Hoosier state seat is Safe Republican.

  • Safe Democrat seats up for re-election are Chris Murphy in Connecticut, Mazie Hirono in Hawaii, Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts, Amy Klobuchar in Minnesota, Robert Menendez in New Jersey (or an alternative Democrat should the Senate be convicted), Martin Heinrich in New Mexico, Kirsten Gillibrand in New York, Sheldon Whitehouse in Rhode Island, Tim Kaine in Virginia, and Maria Cantwell in Washington.

  • Safe Republican seats up for re-election are Roger Wicker of Mississippi, Josh Hawley of Missouri, Deb Fisher of Nebraska, Ken Cramer of North Dakota, Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee, and John Barrasso of Wyoming.

  • Safe Independent seats up for re-election are Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who are once again expected to caucus with the Democrats.

  • Nudging Democrats are Jackey Rosen in Nevada and Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin.

  • Nudging Republicans are Rick Scott in Florida and Ted Cruz in Texas.

With that said, it looks like the Senate is Nudging Republican.

  • Senator Sinema has pissed off Democrats in her state and does not appear to be holding financial support in her race from Democrats or even Independents.

  • West Virginia will flip red with Senator Manchin’s departure, but one has to wonder if he will be the Marco Rubio of this presidential election cycle and change his mind if he finds that No Labels support is not deep in 2024.

  • Senator Tester will need to win Montana but that is a tall order at this stage of the race.

  • Florida could be in play if a Democrat or Independent can make stick Senator Rick Scott’s ethics lapses at various times in their career like when he pled the protection of the Fifth Amendment against criminal incrimination 75 times in a deposition that was captured on video.

Of those in the 2024 class, Thomas rates them as follows by state as of this article:

  • Arizona – Kyrsten Sinema F based on party switch process

  • Connecticut – Chris Murphy A

  • Florida – Rick Scott F based on ethical challenges

  • Hawaii – Mazie Horono A

  • Maine – Angus King A

  • Massachusetts – Elizabeth Warren B- based on lack of collaboration

  • Minnesota – Amy Klobuchar A

  • Mississippi – Roger Wicker A

  • Missouri – Josh Hawley F based on election denying and insurrection encouragement

  • Nebraska – Deb Fisher A

  • Nevada – Jackey Rosen A

  • New Jersey – Robert Menendez F based on ethics challenges

  • New Mexico – Martin Heinrich A

  • New York – Kirsten Gillibrand A

  • North Dakota – Ken Cramer A

  • Rhode Island – Sheldon Whitehouse A

  • Tennessee – Marsha Blackburn C

  • Texas – Ted Cruz F based on election denying

  • Vermont – Bernie Sanders A

  • Virginia – Tim Kaine A

  • Washington – Maria Cantwell A

  • Wisconsin – Tammy Baldwin A

  • Wyoming – John Barrasso A

Could the results of the 2024 Senate races leave 51 Republicans in command with 49 Democrats gumming up the works? 

Time will tell!