Opinion for Thomas by Ben Everidge
Editor’s Note:
A link was added here on February 13, 2024, on a potential platform for a viable broad-based Independent Party and what that might entail. On April 5, 2024, Thomas and the 21st Century Democratic-Republican party announced a publication partnership. Our editor-in-chief is also the inaugural party chair and organizer. .
THOMAS INVITES YOU TO READ: TWELVE TENETS?
Is it Time to Organize into a Viable Third Party?
The 2023 election results from Kentucky, Ohio, and Virginia appear to be harbingers of saner politics than we have had since 2016.
But this upcoming election should also serve as a canary in the coal mine warning that we all need to be intensely alarmed about what the 2024 presidential and congressional election season might bring our nation a year from now.
Voting to protect American Democracy has never been more critical to our Union.
Donald J. Trump, the multi-time criminally indicted, civilly charged, twice impeached 45th president of the United States who is openly promising an authoritarian second term in office, is leading the incumbent president Joe Biden in too many states where the election is to be held today.
For his part, Joe Biden is losing strength in key demographic groups – including Independents – over undelivered campaign promises critical to his winning coalition in 2020.
Age has also made an ugly appearance for the 81-year-old president and the late 70’s former president.
Political opinion leaders are warning in loud voices across the fruited plain that any independent or third-party presidential candidate in the 2024 general election will only hand Donald J. Trump a second White House berth at Joe Biden’s and the nation’s expense.
But is that true? Would a third-party or independent candidate necessarily lose in a three-way match-up next November? When America most needs a significant course correction, would a third-party or independent candidate provide a constructive alternative to the inevitable party nominees, Biden and Trump bipartisan group No Labels, co-chaired by former Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD) and former U.S. Senator Joe Lieberman (D-CT), is working hard to field a third-party “unity ticket” candidate in this election season consisting of a Democrat and a Republican running together.
The bipartisan group Citizens to Save Our Republic is working just as hard to discourage any third-party run in this election cycle, citing concern that Trump would win again just as he did in 2016. Political groups like MoveOn.org and The Lincoln Group have joined the anti-No Labels cause.
Can an independent or third-party candidate for the American presidency win in 2024? Is it time for independents, with a smattering of disaffected Democrats and Republicans jumping aboard, to organize a viable third party? After all, some 50 percent of voting Republicans say they do not want Donald Trump in the White House again, and a similar percent of their Democratic counterparts say the same of their assumed party standard-bearer, Joe Biden.
If true, when then and what might a viable third political party look like philosophically and practically?
In an Era When the U.S. House is Dangerously Broken
A credible third party will need the right strategies to win and a compelling message, and that’s if unique circumstances are helping undermine historical trends that have tended to make third-party candidates also mentioned in past elections.
One only needs to have witnessed the controversial ouster of U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) by a small cadre of hard right-wing members of the GOP Conference to see evidence that the House is alarmingly broken and that we are indeed living in a unique circumstances era. Governing in the People’s House came to an end after three remarkable weeks with an Israeli-Hamas war breaking out, the federal government on the verge of shutting down for lack of funding. Russia’s Vladimir Putin relished that Ukraine was not getting additional financial support from Congress and had thus been drawn into a stalemate when it came to progress in defending that war-torn nation from Mother Russia.
Chronic problems confronting America, at home and abroad, are not being resolved by Congress, especially in the House of Representatives, or either major party, for that matter, prefers to obstruct rather than construct.
This we know going into 2024:
The American middle class is being squeezed too hard by poor job security, ineffective education, miserable and unaffordable childcare, oppressive tax rates, inflation that makes food unattainable, and crime that is blossoming in unimagined nooks and crannies of our once safe neighborhoods.
Foreign adversaries are destabilizing the Middle East, Asia, Europe, and the southern hemisphere, opening fronts of attack against Americans, American allies, American interests, and American-style democracy. Our foreign and defense policies need immediate clarification and focus.
America’s borders are not secure, and immigration reform that is fair and just has been absent for far too long in a nation that immigrants built.
Federal deficits have been wildly out of control, and fiscal discipline in Washington has been non-existent. Shutting down government funding is a profoundly irresponsible threat or policy for any political party to advocate.
Climate change is accurate, deadly, and will not go away without proactive steps to lessen the stress we have collectively placed on our planet.
Home ownership is out of reach for our younger generations, and healthcare pioneered in the United States costs us more than it does for people outside our borders.
And culture wars are tearing apart people who call themselves Americans.
What Democrats & Republicans Used to be Known For
Time was when the two major political parties in America were known for what they believed, not what they opposed.
Democrats, for example, were the party that:
Gave America social security, Medicare, and Medicaid.
Ensured our civil rights through the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
Took humanity to the moon and back.
Provided affordable health insurance through the Affordable Care Act (ACA).
Secured labor rights for American workers
Led us through the Great Depression, World War I, World War II, and the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Championed women’s rights and the rights of the LGBTQ community.
Republicans, on the other hand, were the party that:
Ended the Civil War and brought slavery to its knees.
Promoted individual liberty, upheld states’ rights, and protected the 2nd Amendment.
Ensured a strong defense through increased military spending and a focus on maintaining strong foreign relations.
Gave us our national park system, interstate highway system, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to clean up our rivers, streams, grounds, and air.
Advocated economic conservatism, deregulation, and free-market principles.
Encouraged school choice, parent-centered educational reforms, and tough-on-crime initiatives.
Resulted in tearing down the Berlin Wall and ending the Soviet Union.
Fought for the sanctity of life.
Today, the push for a third-party option has gained traction because both parties have been lassoed by the more extreme wings of their membership and flipped these many accomplishments on their ears. Republicans of late deny climate change and oppose environmental protection, advocate for decreased funding for our military, intelligence, and justice systems, want to withdraw foreign aid support for Ukraine vs Russia, want to prohibit immigration, have racked up significant annual budget deficits on their watch, are opposed to providing our elderly with the social security, Medicare, and Medicaid services they paid for through a lifetime of work, and want to limit individual liberty. Not to be outdone, Democrats are not in general support of more space exploration, have forgotten, too, what fiscal discipline means, are weaker for national defense, and primarily controlled immigration.
Popular Democrats like Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, Woodrow Wilson, and John Kennedy would probably never be able to earn their party’s nomination given what they believed then and what the Democrats espouse today. The same can be said for Republicans like Abraham Lincoln and Ronald Reagan. That’s controversial to say, eh?
Do Extraordinary Times Make for a Ripe Organizing Environment?
The answer is: of course, they do. From our perspective, any objective analysis of Donald Trump confirms, we believe, that the 45th president of the United States is not qualified to be president again in 2025 or ever again.
January 6th was an insurrection, again, in our opinion. It was a coup attempt to deny the peaceful transfer of power to the clear winner of the 2020 presidential election that more than 60 courts of law upheld, many of which were led by Trump-appointed judges.
People were severely injured, and some died because of that day at the U.S. Capitol. This was not a political protest. This was a violent attempt to overthrow the American government. Fake electors were pushed for certain states with the clear intent to reverse the will of a majority of the American electorate. Lawyers for the former president have admitted their complicity and guilt. We believe Dozens of federal and state indictments now rightly plague 45 for his alleged misconduct.
Evidence indicates that former president Donald Trump intentionally hid highly confidential and secret documents from the federal government, including, most alarmingly, at his Florida home at Mar-a-Lago when his return was demanded by federal subpoenas adequately served. Top secret documents reflecting some of our nation’s most sensitive national security initiatives have no business being held or paraded about by any entrusted political officer of the federal government where they have not been legally declassified. Ego is not justification for the theft of government property.
Undermining our institutions of government and consistently behaving in vastly undemocratic ways is not what America is all about. Our police are not to be de-funded. Our fellow citizens should not be attacked or threatened because they believe something else. Judges and their law clerks are not evil people. American and allied intelligence services are not to be preferred less than dictators who would gladly pierce our vital curtains of safety for our citizens. The list of abuses against American democracy is vast in the eyes of Trump.
No sitting or former president, or any elected official or candidate for office, is above the law. The American justice system has not been weaponized – it has been deployed where criminal activity exists and where illegal activity must stop. Without the rule of law, America will be lawless.
Unlike previous eras when independent and third-party candidates have competed for federal office, these times are undeniably and extraordinarily challenging. Nothing has been typical – politically, legally, or ethically – for too many years now, and we cannot permit the future to be a repeat of the unsettling past.
And even demographically, you can see the time is ripe for a new party. According to some more conservative voter registration preferences, Democrats are the majority party in America today but only at 39% of the vote. Registered Republicans come in at 29%. Independents, no party preference, and other parties constitute 32% of the electorate. In other words, Democrats and Republicans do not have a lock on the election if a third-party candidate backed by independents jumps into the race.
Suppose a third-party candidate, in this era of extreme left and extreme right controlling their respective leadership structures, is middle-of-the-road. In that case, it is possible that the candidate could draw moderate left-leaning Democrats and moderate right-leaning Republicans into the fold, thus potentially generating some 50% plus one vote.
With an Electoral College majority, a third-party candidate could win just as easily as Donald Trump or Joe Biden might. If no outright majority is secured in the Electoral College, then the selection of our next president would fall to the currently dysfunctional U.S. House of Representatives. Will that House be Republican-controlled again or Democrat-controlled? Neither scenario plays well for the third-party candidate unless they win the Electoral College majority outright. So, the stakes of a viable third-party candidacy become very high if for no other reason.
Forming a Third Political Party Takes Work
Forming a third political party, under any circumstances – unique or otherwise – is not and will not be an easy task:
To Get on the Ballot – A third-party organization will need to gather the appropriate number of signatures and pay the designated fees to each state to have voters see their ticket’s name on the ballot. Those deadlines start falling shortly and will continue during the Democratic and Republican primary seasons of 2024.
Fulfill the Standard Requirements – This means getting a tax ID and opening a bank account. It means appointing a treasurer, registering with the U.S. Federal Elections Commission, and qualifying as a political party committee.
Fulfill the Specific Requirements – This is accomplished by raising $1,000 in contributions or spending $1,000 in expenses at the state or national level. The new party must also start fielding candidates, holding a convention, registering voters during voter registration drives, issuing policy announcements, and maintaining a party website. A national headquarters and eventual state party committees will be required.
What It Would Take for a Third Political Party to Viably Compete in 2024
To be viable in the 2024 presidential election, any third-party ticket or independent candidate would need to be hyper-organized. They would also need to catch fire with the public to overcome this late-date entry into the race where primaries and caucuses are just weeks away. To catch fire with the public, these late entries must differentiate themselves from Misters Biden and Trump, and they would need to stand for something very compelling. Not just against.
Ten elements, therefore, should come into play:
1. Focus on Key Issues - Advocate for something meaningful to many, not just a vocal minority. Since both major parties are captured and perceived to be at the extreme ends of their political spectrums, a third party will need to be more mainstream in their perspective to attract the appropriate number of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents to their cause. Critical issues like quality jobs and job security; balanced budgets and reduced debt; a strong defense and clear foreign policy; immigration reform; climate attention; transport, creating; manufacturing and innovation; criminal justice reform and assurance; deregulation of over-regulated businesses; balanced culture; and more.
2. Build strong grassroots – Be a significant advocate for the middle ground and commonsense solutions; use technology to your advantage so that you can know your audience, their location, and the preferred means of contact; look for America in our outreach and give them a compelling vision for the party and any third-party candidacy on the ballot; use your volunteers by cultivating them and respecting their essential role.
3. Utilize social media – Tell your story everywhere and recognize that social media is a cost-effective way to reach your audience and opponents. Use them all and talk to them liberally and frequently. Do not shy away from engaging your supporters and detractors yet unconvinced.
4. Gain ballot access – As quickly as possible. Focus on the big states where the Electoral College numbers are enticing, but do not ignore the smaller states where you have or are gaining traction. Remember, if no one wins the Electoral College vote, this race is going to the U.S. House for a decision – and right now, that group is owned by the Trumpers. You need to win the College, and you need to win the popular vote. You can do this by being authentic and omnipresent.
5. Garner media attention – The media are your friends, not enemies of the people, as your one opponent, no doubt, will argue and your other opponent will not respect. Be different. Talk to the media, even if talking is sometimes tricky. Show you are accessible and rational. On television, on cable, on radio, in print. Offer to comment. Do local media interviews, not just national ones. Guest lecture on your key messaging and make your messaging count.
6. Debate – Against Democrats, Republicans, other Independents, or formal third-party candidates. Do not be shy. Get out there and be everywhere. Your accessibility will be rewarded with the attention and knowledge about your candidacy that debating will generate.
7. Seek endorsements – Having a group that does elements of your campaign will be essential- who supports you and who does not will be crucial. Sometimes, having a group that does not endorse you can be just as powerful as the ones who do. Hype both types. Be strategic in who you solicit for endorsements because they will become part of your messaging arsenal.
8. Build coalitions and alliances – Use your natural constituencies to your advantage. Non-profits, universities and colleges, community foundations, political scientists, business leaders, chambers of commerce, book clubs (yes, you must have written at least one book before running), and anyone else who will help advocate for your candidacy.
9. Be transparent – Do not be Biden, and certainly do not be Trump. Trump’s political and legal baggage weighs more than we can imagine at this stage of the campaign cycle. Get out there and be hyper-truthful. Both major political parties have a credibility problem right now, so do not be a part of that headache.
10. Be credible – There is it said. Sadly, that is the case in today’s candidate field, but many are not credible. Stand out and stand up. Raise small donations from many folks and show you have widespread support. Talk openly about the polling numbers and current challenges. Use your humor when speaking and connect personally with your audience. Do not be someone you are not, and do not let the consulting class talk you into being something else. Be thoughtful in what you say, be considerate, and be honest. Ensure your look (campaign art, campaign plane) matches your walk. Clean, compelling, and convincing.
Would 2028 Be A Better Time to Field Third-Party Candidates?
The answer once again is, of course. More time to organize a formal third party would come from fielding candidates in 2025, 2026, and 2027 and then the White House in 2028. But America may not be able to afford this luxury of time. Biden and Trump 2.0 are what we are about to get, and that creates more chaos than ever before.
Are we ready for that, America?
For more details, see:
New York Times-Sienna College poll where Trump is leading Biden in five of six key swing states - https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll.html
Washington Post exposé about how Trump and his allies are planning to use a second presidential term to target political foes through a politically weaponized U.S. Justice Department - https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/07/5-ways-trump-allies-plan-more-authoritarian-second-term/
Trump said in a keynote speech to the Conservative Political Action Conference and then repeated a campaign speech in Waco, Texas, “In 2016, I declared I am your voice.” A few weeks later, in Waco, he said. “Today, I add, I am your warrior. I am your justice. And for those who have been wronged and betrayed, I am your retribution.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2023/04/21/trump-agenda-policies-2024/
Biden’s weak poll numbers alarm Democrats from the Financial Times - https://www.ft.com/content/6d53d7ab-a9cf-4b46-a738-b78aa825b5b2
Polls show large numbers of voters do not want Biden or Trump for president again from Bloomberg - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-11-06/biden-trump-rematch-in-2024-election-americans-want-more-choice.
“The commonsense majority” from the No Labels organization - https://www.nolabels.org/
“We don’t need another party to save our Republic” from Citizens to Protect Our Democracy - https://www.forourrepublic.us/