who benefits?

Opinion by Ben Everidge

Trump, or Biden, or …

As an Independent, running for the United States Senate myself, I've chosen not to give a full-throated endorsement to Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., pondering whether a vote for RFK Jr. would effectively be a vote for former President Donald J. Trump. But I do encourage independents to take a deeper look at RFK Jr. before deciding how they want to vote in November. 

The possibility of a three-way race involving President Joe Biden, Trump, and Kennedy being decided by the U.S. House is a pivotal factor we all must consider in our 2024 voting decisions.  The uncertainty of which party will control the House is a crucial determinant of the next president if 270 votes are not secured after the November 5th balloting.

Thus, I strongly encourage independents to exercise caution when committing to a candidate at this stage.

For context in answering this question, I believe Donald Trump is a direct and clear threat to American democracy and is anti-constitutional. 

I also think that Joe Biden is not physically up to leading America over the next four years. 

In fact, I believe there is a large, silent group of Americans out there who would vote for anyone or anything rather than vote for Trump.  That is to be seen.

The problem is that voting for anyone or anything will not help us resolve the many crises we face today.

We cannot afford another four years of political paralysis and obstructionism with the threats we are facing from outside and within the United States.  Interestingly enough, that threat from outside and within was the very topic John Kennedy was to deliver in his speech at the Dallas Trade Mart on November 22, 1963.

Who would benefit most from an RFK Jr. vote is still very much up in the air, in my opinion, which is why I am encouraging Independents to go slow on who they are committing to just yet. 

Kennedy might pull some votes away from Biden and the Democrats because of his advocacy for the environment, his willingness to significantly cut U.S. defense spending, and his anti-Wall Street/corporate influence position. 

On the other hand, Kennedy might pull some votes away from Trump and the MAGA (Make America Great Again) crowd because of his anti-vaccines stance, criticism of establishment priorities, and opposition to security funding to aid Ukraine and Taiwan. 

The Trump crowd will tell you that a vote for Kennedy is a vote for Trump.

I do not trust the Trump crowd to be telling the truth about what impact RFK Jr. might have on their electoral possibilities. They often project, and I think they are doing so again based on what we know today, more than four months from the election.

This week, a USA Today/Suffolk University poll shows that third-party/Independent voters are not falling behind Biden after the debate. They were not there before the debate either.  25% this week, according to the poll, are for Trump, 17% are for Biden, and 33% to others, which is why I urge Independents to take a deeper look at RFK Jr. before making a decision. 

Add to this the new dynamic that after the conventions, Trump may have announced a disastrous Vice President pick, and Kamala Harris could be at the top of the Democrat's ticket. Who knows who Harris's vice president choice might be if she tops the ticket, after all?

The dynamics are too fluid for independents to roll over and endorse either Biden or Trump today.  Let's leverage the two major parties into making changes that might better benefit Main Street Americans rather than extremist party members. The wait-and-see advice to independents might be worth the go-slow approach I am advocating.

What do you think?  Does a vote for Kennedy come at the expense of Biden or Trump?  What if the vote for Kennedy is a vote for change in who is president in 2025?