The ’24 GOP Ticket

Donald Trump & J.D. Vance Are Chosen…

Disclaimer: Our editor-in-chief, Ben Everidge, is an independent candidate for the United States Senate from Florida and has qualified to be on the November 5th general election ballot.

The next-generation protector for the Make America Great Again crowd has been anointed with Donald J. Trump’s selection of 39-year-old freshman U.S. Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio as his running mate.

With a little more than 100 days to go in the 2024 presidential election season and a stunning assassination attempt behind him, the former and possible future President of the United States is looking formidable entering the post-convention phase of his campaign.

While current president Joe Biden is struggling to hold onto his nomination for another term in the White House, which threatens to pull down-ballot candidates into their own losses, the Republican Party leaves Milwaukee tonight unified, energized, and more determined than ever to beat the 46th president.

The Democrats, who hold their convention in Chicago starting August 19th after the Paris Olympics, are fractured, discouraged, and depressed by their November prospects, which are spiraling downward because of the President’s poor televised June debate performance in Atlanta against Trump and a series of missteps since that makes the 81-year-old president look physically feeble in comparison to his 78-year-old competitor.

Even if Democrats replace Biden with his Vice President, Kamala Harris (59), this election looks like the Vice President cannot win either. Suppose the Democrats replace Biden before or during the convention but do not select Harris as Biden’s replacement. In that case, the party will likely not survive the resulting political revolt, short of maybe nominating Michelle Obama, as has been rumored occasionally but also seems far-fetched.

Will an Independent Rise to the Occasion?

It is not likely that any of the independent presidential candidates will prevail either. However, one could certainly prove to be an electoral college spoiler if the race between Trump and whichever Democrat proves tighter in the end than projected.

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (70) has stagnated at around nine or ten percent of the polled vote and has not gained traction with his anti-vax, anti-war messaging. Cornel West (71), Jill Stein (74) of the Green Party, and Chase Oliver (38) of the Libertarian Party are similarly floundering in the backwash of the Biden-Trump drama. Given their respective politically narrow bases, they are not likely to grow in strength either.

Assuming Kennedy can muster ten percent of the vote, he will not likely win enough states to stymie a projected Trump electoral college win. Even if Kennedy did get some state’s electoral college vote, the U.S. House would likely remain Republican, meaning that Trump would be elected president anyway if the 2024 election goes to Capitol Hill for a decision.

A Second Trump Term

What, then, would a second Trump term as president look like if he is re-elected in November?

Thanks to a lot of public statements that Mr. Trump has made in recent months and the posting of his Agenda47 plan for the nation, we know that he would like to pursue the following significant initiatives starting in January 2025:

Consolidate more power in the presidency, including restoring the Impoundment Act and overriding congressional appropriations.
Bring the Federal Communications Commission and the Federal Trade Commission under direct presidential authority.
Continue draining “the swamp” and dismantling the “deep state,” including reforms of the Department of Defense, Department of State, Department of Justice, and the national security industrial complex.
Expect more “media is the enemy of the people” allegations.
Appoint more conservative justices to the Supreme Court of the United States and within the federal judiciary system.
End federal legal cases against Trump and those indicted alongside him.
Prosecute the prosecutors and political opponents who “persecuted” Trump
Pardon the January 6th “hostages.”
Reform the FISA courts.
Authorize the use of the National Guard in high-crime and liberal cities.
Lower taxes on corporations and wealthy individuals.
No longer financially help failing banks.
Ensure that drug costs are paid at big Pharma’s best price offer in foreign nations.
End the Russia-Ukraine War, including letting Russia keep land it has already taken.
Re-evaluate NATO’s purpose and mission.
Expect more Vladimir Putin, Viktor Orban, and Kim Jong- are to be admired thoughts.
Create an American Iron Dome defense system.
Build the wall and reform immigration.
Perform mass deportations of 11 million illegal immigrants currently in the United States.
End sanctuary cities.
End sheltering and transporting illegal immigrants.
End birthright citizenship, chain migration, and birth tourism.
Impose universal tariffs on countries’ products where unfair trade practices exist.
Remove Civil Service protections.
Impose the death penalty for drug dealers, human traffickers, and Mexican cartels.
Build “Freedom cities” on empty federal land.
Create flying car manufacturing facilities and programs.
Prevent Chinese ownership of U.S. infrastructure.
End Chinese academic investments in our universities and colleges.
Stay out of The Paris Agreement and reverse domestic energy production bans.
Replenish the U.S Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Oppose the Green New Deal.
Develop American oil, natural gas, clean coal, hydroelectric, and nuclear power resources.
Modernize America’s electric grid.
Pay baby bonuses to young families to boost American birth rates.
Address the rise in chronic childhood health illnesses.
Dismantle the U.S. Department of Education.
Promote universal school choice.
Restore and improve parental rights in education.
Ensure the freedom to pray in schools.
Abolish teacher tenure for the nation’s k-12 system.
Certify teachers based on patriotism.
Provide for the direct election of school principals by parents.
Get the homeless off the streets.
Establish concealed carry reciprocity.
Keep Medicare and Social Security funding.
Reduce federal spending on Medicaid.
Treat homeless veterans.
Weaken and end the Affordable Care Act.

Reading the Tea Leaves

As it stands now, Donald Trump appears to be the most likely president of the United States come January 20, 2025. It also looks like the U.S. House of Representatives will remain under Republican management. The question is, with what margin? An expanded margin or another razor-thin count.

And what about the United States Senate? Will it also go Republican majority or remain in Democrat’s hands?

The current Senate composition is 47 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and four Independents, two retiring and two up for re-election in November. One retiring independent, Joe Manchin of West Virginia, will be replaced by Republican Governor Jim Justice, Thomas projects. The other retiring independent, Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, may be replaced by Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego, projects Thomas. Gallego’s Republican opponent is the controversial Kari Lake.

That election scenario would make the Senate’s composition 48 Democrats, 50 Republicans, and two Independents. Thomas projects that Maine’s Independent senator, Angus King, and Vermont’s Independent senator, Bernie Sanders, will be re-elected in November.

That count brings up the specter of a 50-50 tie in the Senate if the two independent senators continue caucusing with the Democrats. That 50-50 tie would be broken by whoever is the Vice President of the United States. Before you count your chickens, perhaps, hold on for a minute and consider the following potential twist.

A weak Democratic ticket for president and a snowballing Trump-Vance Republican ticket will produce coattails that will undoubtedly favor GOP candidates. But which GOP Senate candidates might be favored?

Suppose that either Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio or Democratic Senator Jon Tester of Montana lost their election. We still have 51 Republicans, 47 Democrats, and two independents in the Senate since both are running against Republicans and not viable independent candidates in those states.

Thomas is projecting that Nevada’s Jackie Rosen (D), Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey (D), Virginia’s Tim Kaine (D), and Wisconsin’s Tammy Baldwin (D) will win their elections. Maryland’s Angela Alsobrooks (D) should defeat former Governor Larry Hogan (R) despite Hogan’s fundraising advantage, and Michigan’s open seat should also go Democrat. Indiana Republican Senate Mike Braun will win his seats as well as the other Republican senators seeking re-election, Thomas predicts.

Let’s also suppose that a Republican like Texas’ U.S. Senator Ted Cruz loses to Texas Congressman Colin Allred, a Democrat. We are back to a 50-50 tie.

Then, let’s play with Florida’s Republican Senator Rick Scott’s seat for a moment.

Please take me with a grain of salt on this one since I am running for this seat, but consider several factors that may not make it possible to take the seat away from the Republican senator.

Rick Scott has been unpopular with his constituents in Florida. He has also stepped on the leadership toes of his colleagues in Washington, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Scott has alienated critical constituencies in his home states. He is favoring, for example, Social Security and Medicare cuts for seniors, imposing a draconian six-week ban on abortions for women, supporting disability qualifications for veterans, denying climate challenges in a state riddled by destructive hurricanes and coastal flooding, and more.

Add to this mix Scott’s high-profile defense of Donald Trump at his trial in New York City, where he accused prosecutors of persecuting the former president like he (Scott) was when his company, Columbia HCA, was prosecuted for Medicare fraud, with 14 felonies and $1.7 billion in fines and interest admitted by Columbia HCA.

In a related civil trial, Scott pleaded the Fifth Amendment 75 times to avoid incriminating himself. Scott’s argument that he was persecuted does not hold water when you learn that Columbia HCA was pursued by both the Bill Clinton (Democrat) and George W. Bush (Republican) Departments of Justice.

If ethics matter to voters in November, Scott could lose to a viable independent candidate or the Democrat endorsed by President Biden, assuming that does not prove to be a liability.

That will leave us with a Senate composition if Rick Scott loses in Florida to the Democrats with 52 seats to the GOP’s 49 seats.

On the other hand, if I win, the Senate will consist of 48 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and three Independents, begging the question of who the Independents will caucus with.

For fun, let’s assume Bernie Sanders continues to caucus with the Democrats, but Angus King and I decide not to caucus with anyone. What happens to the Senate when it has 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and two Independents?

Could those two independent Independents control the Senate? Could Angus King be named the Senate Majority Leader to break the impasse with my help?

Don’t you love political strategy? It is possible, but ultimately, it is up to the voters who they elect to which party in the U.S. Senate. An Independent Senate, a Republican House, and a Republican White House would be fascinating scenarios for the checks and balances features of our government in another Donald Trump Administration.

The What Ifs

What has been unspoken in Trump’s many pronouncements and Agenda 47 thus far is what will happen to our country’s annual budget deficits. During Trump's first term, deficit spending exploded by over $8 trillion. Will deficit spending continue under a second Trump term?

Will a second-term President Trump be a dictator for a day, as he surmised earlier in the campaign? Will he be more authoritarian in behavior, as predicted? If the 2024 election is a referendum on the future of democracy, as so many have feared, will democracy end with the former president's re-election?

What roles will Donald Trump’s many legal travails have on his electoral popularity in 2024? The federal cases pending on obstruction of justice, particularly in Florida, or election interference in Georgia? Will his 34 felony convictions in New York state withstand appeal? Will he try to claim in some way that his sexual assault case or cases were official actions to make the Supreme Court happy? How about his liable findings on the Trump Foundation and Trump University? What a list that seems to have no negative impact on his loyal supporters!

What will happen to infrastructure investments, military spending, space exploration, college tuition forgiveness, the Israel-Gaza War, Iran and North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, China’s expansion, Russia’s border aspirations, and national parkland preservation?

Will Air Force One get the paint job Trump was planning before his first term ended in 2021?

J.D. Vance has a vastly different view about economics and corporations than traditional Republicans in the past. Has that now permanently changed? Will Vance be entirely onboard with the Trump agenda now, or will we see some tweaking of GOP philosophy in the months ahead?

Are Ron DeSantis’ presidential ambitions at an end with J.D. Vance’s GOP leadership ascendance? Will Vice President Vance start campaigning for November 2028 sooner rather than later?

Will a different Democratic presidential ticket have a good, bad, or indifferent impact on how the GOP ticket executes its general election strategy?

We do know this: Whoever is president in 2025, their plate of crises and priorities will undoubtedly be full and challenging. Coming off a unified national convention, the Trump-Vance ticket will have a solid start to the remaining days of this campaign.

That said, congratulations to Donald Trump and J.D. Vance on their successful nominations for President and Vice President of the United States.

The ’24 GOP ticket is selected, and we wish both safe travels to November 5th.

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