Thomas
Thomas
A modern American political mediazine

florida, florida, florida!

 

Ben Everidge for Thomas

Disclosure

The author, our Editor-in-Chief at Thomas, has worked for more than ten years on professional committees, personal offices, and campaign staff for Democratic members of Congress from Florida, including former United States Senator and late Governor Lawton Chiles and former United States Senator and astronaut Bill Nelson. As Senate and House staff, the author interacted with the Biden office on several legislative issues and views the former Vice President as a centrist.

The author is a registered Independent since 2012 who voted for the Trump-Pence ticket in 2016. He earned his Master’s degree in American Government from Georgetown University, where the author was also named a prestigious University Fellow. He is also the author of the forthcoming political novel Hoya Saxa: Honor Among Grey Ghosts, the sequel to Hoya: The Watchmen Waketh, published in 2017 about the fictional 48th president of the United States from Florida.

The Ticket is Set . . .

Democrat Joseph R. Biden has selected California Junior United States Senator Kamala Harris as his running mate in the presidential election against the formidable incumbent Donald J. Trump-Mike Pence ticket for 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue this November 3rd.

President Trump, a new resident of the Sunshine State, has said that he is doubling down on winning Florida, and former Vice President Biden appears to have matched 45’s hand with his historic selection of Harris, the first woman of color to be a major party’s nominee for Vice President.

The selection of Harris was a critically important hurdle for winning the White House for the Biden campaign.

“It’s Florida, florida, florida!”

NBC News’ late Tim Russert liked to remind America that presidential races are often all about Florida, Florida, Florida! This election will be no different, it appears.

Trump is from New York, which appears to be a leaning Democrat in this election. Harris is from California and seems to be leaning Democrat in 2020. Indiana, Mike Pence’s hometown, may be similarly trending Republican but has far fewer electoral college votes to contribute to the political pie, as for Joe Biden’s home state of Delaware. That leaves Florida, Texas, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio as the following biggest prizes on the presidential election table, and Florida is most definitely in play and available.

Florida will react well to Senator Harris on the Biden ticket, demographically. Democrats hold a voter registration advantage over Republicans, and Independents who make up well over a quarter of the voting age registration themselves will, no doubt, trend Democrat as well—especially given the sour national economy, exploding COVID-19 pandemic, and weak performance by its Republican Governor and Trump clone, Ron DeSantis.

DeSantis, who has already announced more than two years out that he is running for re-election, will not offer much of a coattail benefit to Mr. Trump as he is now known around the state as Governor “DeathSantis.” Republican Senators Marco Rubio and Rick Scott are also weak incumbents and do not offer much benefit to the struggling Trump campaign in Florida either.

Elders in Florida, a sizable voting block, were shocked to learn of the President’s intention, if re-elected, to de-fund Social Security and Medicare and remember already that many of the President’s GOP team feel that it is okay if seniors succumb to the novel coronavirus so that younger citizens might ultimately prosper.

Households with pre-existing medical conditions have been threatened by the President seeking a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that would invalidate Obamacare and all existing protections for losing affordable insurance if one has cancer, heart disease, diabetes, stroke, and a wide variety of other physical ailments.

Neighborhoods of color have seen the President and his White House stoke violence against them for protesting for fairer police protections and other social equality issues. Immigrant households have seen similar antagonism from President Trump and his Administration to their desires to immigrate to the United States and re-establish their families where possible.

Hospitals have been overwhelmed, and small businesses have been devastated by the lack of a national strategy to contain the coronavirus. We are now a leading global hot spot for infections, hospitalizations, and death.

Florida’s environment is a treasured benefit of being a Sunshine State resident. Still, the President and his Administration are interested in opening our oceans and beaches to oil drilling, denying climate change damage, and undermining environmental rules and regulations that have kept the air and water clean and pure.

Constitution-loving citizens will respond well to Senator Harris’s ability to defend our founding documents and the rule of law. They will relish Senator Harris’s litigation and prosecutorial skills when holding the President and Attorney General accountable for their recent legal and ethical transgressions.

President Trump will appeal to the more conservative communities around the state, including those in the Panhandle, North Florida, Villages in Central Florida, and several specific Congressional districts, like the one represented by the mercurial Matt Gaetz.

Former Vice President Biden will tickle residents in South Florida and significant metropolitan and Democrat voter-heavy cities like Miami, the Palm Beaches, Orlando, Tampa, and Jacksonville. Former presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton will undoubtedly campaign for the Democratic ticket in these communities. However, don’t look to former President George Bush and his brother, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, to return the favor to Mr. Trump.

Also, look for the influential anti-Trump Republican groups, Lincoln Project and Republicans Voting Against Trump, to add their considerable voices to the elect-or-not-elect debate in the state.

Winning Florida will come down to money to buy critical advertising in expensive Florida TV markets and how well each campaign gets out the vote. The parties in Florida will operate at near parity, so ticket messaging will be super critical to winning the vote in Florida.

Early voting, mail-in balloting, and other reputable voting processes will make the immediacy of whatever these two campaigns can do all the more critical to the November 3rd outcome.

Whoever wins Florida, with the close margins elsewhere in the United States, will most likely be the next President and Vice President.

Will it be the incumbents, Donald Trump and Mike Pence, or the upstart challengers, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris?

Stay tuned. This is a developing story by the hour, and we will be digging deep into the Florida race between the Biden-Harris and Trump-Pence tickets.

The founding fathers would have loved this match-up!

TH Take.jpg

florida is nudging democrat

To Win: Democrats will need Joe Biden to control his gaffes

To Win: Republicans will need Donald Trump to control his temper